Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 39% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 36% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 72%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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