Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 71% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 68% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 51% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 46% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 35% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 34% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 31% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 16% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 10% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 9% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →