Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 29.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Texans O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| O/U 32.5 | 91% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| O/U 33.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Texans O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 86% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| O/U 35.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 79% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| O/U 42.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| Texans 1H O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 45.5 | 59% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Texans O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Texans 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| O/U 49.5 | 46% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| O/U 50.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| O/U 51.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Texans O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Texans 1H O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 52.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Texans 1H O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| O/U 53.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Texans 1H O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Texans 1H O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| Texans O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 58.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 13% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| O/U 67.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Cowboys vs. Texans. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 44% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $93K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Cowboys vs. Texans auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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