Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 207.5 | 96% |
| O/U 209.5 | 94% |
| O/U 211.5 | 92% |
| O/U 213.5 | 89% |
| O/U 215.5 | 86% |
| Kings O/U 104.5 | 85% |
| O/U 217.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 82% |
| O/U 219.5 | 81% |
| Grizzlies O/U 108.5 | 81% |
| Kings O/U 106.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 79% |
| O/U 221.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| Grizzlies O/U 110.5 | 75% |
| Kings O/U 108.5 | 74% |
| O/U 223.5 | 73% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 71% |
| O/U 225.5 | 70% |
| Kings 1H O/U 55.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 69% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 68% |
| Kings O/U 110.5 | 68% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 4.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 67% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| O/U 227.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 65% |
| Grizzlies O/U 114.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 64% |
| Kings O/U 112.5 | 62% |
| Kings 1H O/U 57.5 | 62% |
| O/U 229.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 61% |
| Grizzlies vs. Kings | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 60% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 59% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 59% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 231.5 | 57% |
| 1H Moneyline | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 56% |
| Kings O/U 114.5 | 56% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 54% |
| O/U 233.5 | 53% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 118.5 | 51% |
| Kings 1H O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Kings 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| O/U 235.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Grizzlies O/U 120.5 | 45% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 44% |
| Kings O/U 118.5 | 44% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| O/U 237.5 | 43% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Kings 1H O/U 61.5 | 42% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 41% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| O/U 239.5 | 40% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 38% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| O/U 241.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Kings 1H O/U 63.5 | 33% |
| Grizzlies O/U 124.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| O/U 243.5 | 32% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 32% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 65.5 | 32% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 245.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Kings O/U 124.5 | 27% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Cedric Coward: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 25% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 25% |
| Spread -12.5 | 24% |
| O/U 247.5 | 24% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Grizzlies O/U 128.5 | 22% |
| O/U 249.5 | 21% |
| Kings O/U 126.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 20% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 19% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| O/U 251.5 | 18% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 44.5 | 18% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Grizzlies O/U 130.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| O/U 253.5 | 15% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Kings O/U 128.5 | 15% |
| Spread -11.5 | 14% |
| O/U 255.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 14% |
| Spread -18.5 | 13% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Grizzlies O/U 132.5 | 13% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 11% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 10% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| Spread -22.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -24.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 29.5 | 6% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -26.5 | 5% |
| Spread -28.5 | 5% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 29.5 | 5% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 5% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 39.5 | 4% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 4% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 4% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Isaiah Stewart: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 4% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 4% |
| Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -23.5 | 3% |
| Spread -30.5 | 3% |
| Spread -32.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: grizzlies vs. kings 96%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 9:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings".…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $688K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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