Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 99% |
| O/U 26.5 | 99% |
| O/U 28.5 | 99% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 99% |
| O/U 30.5 | 98% |
| O/U 32.5 | 98% |
| O/U 34.5 | 98% |
| O/U 36.5 | 95% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 38.5 | 92% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| O/U 40.5 | 90% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 89% |
| O/U 42.5 | 86% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 82% |
| O/U 44.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| O/U 46.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 48.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 50.5 | 64% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 58% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| O/U 52.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 52% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 47% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 46% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Packers vs. Lions: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| O/U 56.5 | 44% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 43% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 58.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 36% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| Packers vs. Lions | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 62.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| 1H Moneyline | 22% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Packers vs. Lions — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Packers and Lions, scheduled for October 25 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if Packers win the game. This market will resolve to "Lions" i…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.6M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prognosewetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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