Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 84% |
| O/U 33.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 34.5 | 81% |
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| O/U 38.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| O/U 39.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| O/U 40.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 42.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 43.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| O/U 44.5 | 54% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 51% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 25+ | 48% |
| O/U 46.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 19-24 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 13-18 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-12 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| 1H Moneyline | 45% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Jaguars vs. Broncos | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 47.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| O/U 48.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| O/U 49.5 | 39% |
| Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| O/U 50.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 33% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 31% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| O/U 52.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| O/U 53.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| O/U 55.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 19% |
| O/U 57.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| O/U 61.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 63.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| O/U 64.5 | 10% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Jaguars vs. Broncos — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 96%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:05PM ET: If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If Broncos wins, the market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $867K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Jaguars vs. Broncos auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
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