Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 25.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 90% |
| O/U 29.5 | 87% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 79% |
| O/U 33.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 35.5 | 72% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 70% |
| O/U 37.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 63% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 39.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 59% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| O/U 45.5 | 41% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| O/U 48.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 31% |
| Falcons vs. Packers | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| O/U 53.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Spread -19.5 | 15% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| O/U 57.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 11% |
| O/U 59.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 61.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 8% |
| Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 95% Chance für prognose: falcons vs. packers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15PM ET: If Falcons wins, the market will resolve to "Falcons". If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $604K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Falcons vs. Packers auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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