Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 83% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Broncos O/U 14.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 36.5 | 70% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| O/U 38.5 | 65% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Broncos O/U 17.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 60% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 42.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| O/U 43.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| O/U 45.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| O/U 46.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 36% |
| Chiefs O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Broncos O/U 25.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| O/U 50.5 | 29% |
| Spread -5.5 | 29% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Chiefs O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 23% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 22% |
| Chiefs O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| O/U 56.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-12 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 25+ | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 13-18 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 19-24 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Broncos vs. Chiefs. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 45% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-15T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.2M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Broncos vs. Chiefs auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prognosewetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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