Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prognosewetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 29.5 | 91% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 33.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 37.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| O/U 40.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 62% |
| Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 48.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 50.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 51.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| O/U 52.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 53.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| O/U 55.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 21% |
| O/U 57.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| O/U 67.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 94% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Patriots vs. Jaguars. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postpo…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $223K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Patriots vs. Jaguars auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prognosewetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Patriots vs. Jaguars" auf Prognosewetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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